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Tokio Marine Kiln latest Lloyd’s syndicate results and forecasts


  • Open years for Syndicates 510 and 557 showing small improvements due to reductions in the ultimate loss estimates for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.
  • Syndicates 510 and 557 remain forecasting a loss for the 2017 year of account reflecting the US hurricane losses

Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited today released updated forecasts for the 2016 and 2017 years of account for its three non-aligned syndicates.

Charles Franks, Chief Executive Officer of Tokio Marine Kiln, said:

For the 2016 YOA all three syndicates are showing a small improvement. This is because of a stable quarter in our back year development, and in particular reducing ultimate losses for the 2017 Q3 catastrophes. Our Claims teams continue to work hard to handle remaining losses and support our customers quickly and compassionately.

On the pricing front we have, like others, seen some improvements in selected areas but the overall market remains tough and competitive. In keeping with our long-held stance on discipline and bottom-line focus, we have realigned our underwriting teams on those markets and lines of business that are showing the best medium to long-term business opportunities for us and reduced our presence in other marginal parts of the account.

Syndicate 308 continues into run-off and we are servicing the existing business professionally and will ensure that there is no detriment to policyholders as a result of this action."

The previous forecasts, which were announced in May 2018, have been rebased to the same exchange rates (US$1.32 and C$1.74). The forecasts set out below take into account all managing agency and Lloyd’s charges.

2016 year of account results
Syndicate Capacity
2016 year of account
forecast range %
Previous forecast range
as at May 2018 %
510 1,062 -1.1 to 3.9 -2.7 to 2.3
557 35 13.3 to 18.3 13.2 to 18.2
308 32 -14.6 to -9.6 -15.8 to -10.8

Syndicate 557 has had little exposure to the 2017 catastrophes on the 2016 year of account and as a result, the syndicate remains on course to make a good profit.

2017 year of account forecasts
Syndicate Capacity
2017 year of account
forecast range %
Previous forecast range
as at May 2018 %
510 1,131 -12.4 to -7.4 -12.5 to -7.5
557 34 -31.2 to -26.2 -38.1 to -33.1
308 31 -54.8 to -49.8 -54.9 to -49.9

The impact of an active catastrophe environment in the second half of the 2017 financial year is reflected in the forecasts for Syndicates 510 and 557. The 2017 year of account for both 510 and 557 experienced losses on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, the Mexican earthquakes and the Californian wildfires, all of which had a substantial impact on the forecast ranges. The forecast loss range for Syndicate 557 has improved following favourable claim movements on the open years. A relatively stable quarter has seen the forecast range for Syndicate 510 marginally improve.





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